Baylor vs Mississippi State March Madness Picks: NCAAB First Round Betting Guide
The #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs face off against the #9 Baylor Bears in the East Region's opening round of March Madness. The game tips off at 12:15pm ET from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC, with CBS broadcasting the matchup.
Basketball player in Celtics uniform
Mississippi State enters as 1-point favorites (-120) with the total set at 144.5. While the Bulldogs opened as 1.5-point underdogs, early betting action shifted the line in their favor, though recent money has started flowing back toward Baylor (+100).
Key Factors:
- Baylor (19-14) brings more tournament experience and overall talent
- Mississippi State (21-12) has struggled lately, losing 5 of their last 7 games
- The Bears feature four double-digit scorers and strong offensive rebounding
- Baylor shoots well from three-point range against MSU's weak perimeter defense (342nd nationally)
- The Bulldogs shoot just 31% from three, limiting their ability to exploit Baylor's defensive weakness
Analysis:
Baylor holds advantages in Net rating and offensive efficiency despite their lower seed. They're led by projected top-10 draft pick VJ Edgecombe and experienced transfers Jeremy Roach (Duke) and Norchad Omier (Miami), who have made deep tournament runs.
Mississippi State's defense ranks 237th in opponent effective field goal percentage, though Josh Hubbard provides offensive spark with 19 points per game. The Bulldogs are 19-1 when holding teams under 80 points, but Baylor's potent offense makes that unlikely.
Prediction:
Baylor moneyline (+100) - Coach Scott Drew's tournament experience (13-9 ATS as favorites) and superior offensive firepower should extend the Bears' streak of advancing past the first round to seven straight appearances.
The winner likely faces Duke in the second round, limiting either team's potential for a deep run.