Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada, triggering significant political upheaval as the country heads into 2025. The announcement follows the December resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland over disputes regarding economic policies and potential U.S. tariff threats.

Key Developments:

• Trudeau's approval rating sits at 22% according to Angus Reid's tracker
• Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre leads polls at 44.2%, projected to win 227 seats
• Liberal government maintains minority status through NDP support
• Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada Liberal caucuses called for Trudeau's resignation

Potential Successors:

• Mark Carney (former Bank of England governor)
• Chrystia Freeland
• Melanie Joly (Minister of Foreign Affairs)
• Dominic LeBlanc (current Finance Minister)

Political Implications:

• Parliament reconvenes January 27
• Possible prorogation during leadership campaign
• Potential summer national vote if non-confidence motion passes
• Conservative victory heavily favored by betting markets (-2000 on BetMGM)

Current Prediction Markets:

• 61% chance of election by April
• 91% likelihood of Poilievre becoming next PM
• 1% probability of no-confidence motion passing in 2024

The situation remains fluid, with the NDP's support crucial for any non-confidence vote. Mark Carney emerges as a potential Liberal leader who could reset party economic policy and potentially reunite disillusioned Liberal voters.

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