The Buffalo Bills (home team) enter as 2.5-point favorites against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, with the total set at 46.5 points for this crucial Week 11 matchup at Highmark Stadium.

Key Stats:

• Chiefs are 8-0 SU in their last eight road games
• Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS and 11-3 SU as an underdog
• Bills have covered in all four home games this season
• Bills have won three straight regular-season meetings against KC

Chiefs Analysis: Kansas City's offense leads the NFL in third-down conversion (52%) and ranks fourth in dropback success rate (51.5%). While seven of their nine games have been decided by one score, they continue finding ways to win. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins and Kareem Hunt alongside a rejuvenated Travis Kelce gives Mahomes multiple weapons.

Bills Analysis: Buffalo's offense has scored 30+ points in four straight games, with Josh Allen playing at an elite level. However, their 15th-ranked pass rush may struggle to generate pressure without blitzing, which could be problematic against Mahomes. The Bills need this win to cement their status as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Best Bet: Over 46.5 (-108) Reasoning: Both teams feature explosive offenses led by elite quarterbacks. The combination of playmaking ability and favorable matchups should lead to a high-scoring affair that exceeds the total.

This battle between AFC heavyweights has all the makings of an instant classic, likely coming down to key fourth-quarter plays. Given both teams' offensive firepower and recent scoring trends, expect fireworks in what should be one of the season's most entertaining games.

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