Xavier vs Illinois March Madness Odds: Fighting Illini Favored in First-Round Clash

Xavier vs Illinois March Madness Odds: Fighting Illini Favored in First-Round Clash

By Michael Davidson

March 23, 2025 at 03:40 PM

The 11th-seeded Xavier Musketeers (22-11) will face the 6th-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) in the NCAA Tournament Round of 64, with Illinois opening as 2.5-point favorites.

Two NBA players battling for ball

Two NBA players battling for ball

Opening Odds:

  • Illinois: -155 (60.78% win probability)
  • Xavier: +130 (43.48% win probability)
  • Total: 156.5 points

Xavier's Recent Performance:

  • Won First Four game vs Texas 86-80
  • Marcus Foster led with 22 points
  • Had won 7 straight before Big East Tournament loss
  • Average 78.4 PPG, allow 72.2 PPG

Illinois Overview:

  • 12-8 in Big Ten play
  • 7th toughest schedule nationally
  • Led by freshman Kasparas Jakucionis (15.0 PPG)
  • Play at 18th-fastest tempo in Division I
  • Average 83.8 PPG (12th in nation)
  • Allow 74.6 PPG

Key Factors:

  • Illinois has five players averaging double figures
  • Xavier showed resilience in First Four comeback
  • KenPom projects 82-77 Illinois victory
  • Line movement likely to favor Illinois
  • Total may increase slightly from 156.5

The game tips off Friday at 9:45 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.

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