The Texans (6-4) head to Arlington as 7-point favorites against the struggling Cowboys (3-6) for Monday Night Football in Week 11. The total is set at 42 points, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 pm ET at AT&T Stadium.

Public betting heavily favors Houston, with 74% of spread tickets and 78% of the money backing the Texans -7. The over is also popular, attracting 78% of bets and 55% of the handle.

Houston enters on a two-game skid but receives a boost with star receiver Nico Collins returning from a hamstring injury. Collins led the NFL in receiving before his Week 5 injury. The Texans' offense ranks 17th in scoring but features Joe Mixon, who averages 98.3 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL) with eight touchdowns.

The Cowboys' defense allows 152 rushing yards per game (30th) and ranks 30th in run stop win rate, setting up favorably for Mixon. However, Houston's offensive line could struggle against Micah Parsons and Dallas' pass rush.

Dallas hasn't scored a touchdown at home since Week 3, going 24 straight possessions without reaching the end zone. Cooper Rush replaces the injured Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys' offense ranks near the bottom in key metrics:

• 35.9% third down conversion rate
• 41.7% red zone touchdown rate
• 34.3 total QBR (29th in NFL)

The Texans' defense has forced a league-high 15 turnovers since Week 6, while Dallas is 0-4 both straight up and against the spread at home this season.

Prediction and Picks:

• Texans -7 (-110)
• Under 42 (-110)

The Cowboys' offensive struggles and Houston's opportunistic defense should lead to a comfortable Texans victory in prime time.

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