Currently ranked 4th in the CFP rankings, the Ohio State Buckeyes face a crucial three-game stretch that will determine their playoff fate. Here's a detailed breakdown of their chances:

Michigan State Game

• Buckeyes are -19 favorites
• 90% probability to win
• Michigan State's worst-ranked FBS pass defense faces Ohio State's elite passing attack
• Most favorable matchup of remaining schedule

Michigan Game

• Expected line around -8.5 to -9 points
• Approximately 77% chance to win
• Game played in Ann Arbor
• Line could shift based on Michigan State performance

Big Ten Championship (Likely vs. Wisconsin)

• Projected -15.5 point spread on neutral field
• 85% probability to win
• Wisconsin brings one of country's top defenses

Overall Playoff Chances

• 59% chance to win all three games
• 60% total probability to make CFP
• Alternative scenarios exist:
  • Could lose one game but still make playoff if:
    • Alabama loses again
    • Cincinnati loses
    • ACC, Pac-12, and Big 12 champions all have 2 losses

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