North Carolina vs San Diego State First Four Game: Tar Heels Favored in NCAA Tournament Clash
North Carolina and San Diego State clash in a highly anticipated First Four matchup as 11-seed play-in contestants in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Player in blue basketball jersey
The Tar Heels (KenPom #33) enter as controversial tournament selections, while the battle-tested Aztecs (KenPom #46) bring significant March Madness experience with 12 appearances in 15 years. North Carolina opened as 3.5-point favorites, with the line moving to -4.5.
Game Analysis and Prediction San Diego State's elite defense (13th in adjusted efficiency) matches up well against UNC's rim-attacking offense. The Aztecs lead the nation in block percentage and rank top-20 in both 2P% and FG% at the rim. North Carolina's weak 3-point shooting (228th in attempt rate) could prove problematic.
The pace battle favors SDSU significantly. While UNC prefers an up-tempo style (34th in pace), the Aztecs' methodical approach (245th in tempo) typically frustrates opponents in tournament settings.
Key Factors:
- UNC's 1-12 record in Quad 1 games
- Return of SDSU's Defensive Player of the Year Magoon Gwath
- Sharp betting action favoring the Aztecs (23% of ML handle vs 15% of bets)
Prediction: San Diego State +4.5
Top Prop Bet Elliot Cadeau Over 4.5 Assists (-114) stands out as the strongest prop play. The sophomore point guard:
- Averages 6.0 assists per game
- Ranks 18th nationally in assist rate
- Has exceeded 4.5 assists in 9 of last 12 games
Current Odds (BetMGM):
- UNC Moneyline: -198
- SDSU Moneyline: +164
- Spread: UNC -4.5 (-110)
- Total: 142.5 (O/U -110)
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