NFL Week 11 Betting Picks: Expert Analysis Against the Spread

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks: Expert Analysis Against the Spread

By Michael Davidson

November 20, 2024 at 10:36 AM

NFL Week 11 features several exciting matchups, with key divisional games and tight spreads across the board. Here are three valuable picks against the spread for Sunday's games.

New Orleans Saints players in uniform

New Orleans Saints players in uniform

Steelers +3 vs Ravens

  • Underdogs in AFC North matchups are 28-10-3 (74%) ATS over last 20 years
  • Mike Tomlin is 62-35-4 (63.9%) ATS as underdog
  • Steelers are 3-0 since switching to Russell Wilson
  • Pittsburgh averaging 30+ points in last three games
  • Ravens have struggled with secondary injuries

Browns +1 vs Saints

  • Saints coming off emotional win under interim coach
  • New Orleans allows 5.2 rushing yards per carry (2nd worst)
  • Nick Chubb getting healthier after bye week
  • Browns defense matches up well against depleted Saints receivers
  • Cleveland positioned to control game tempo

Chiefs +2.5 vs Bills

  • Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as underdog
  • Chiefs are 18-5-1 ATS as underdogs since 2016
  • Kansas City won in Buffalo during last year's playoffs
  • Bills defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry
  • 81% of public bets on Chiefs +2.5
  • Chiefs defense performing more consistently than Bills

Important statistics support all three underdogs this week. The Steelers benefit from strong divisional trends, the Browns match up well after their bye, and the Chiefs continue to thrive in the underdog role with Mahomes at quarterback.

Notable trends and injuries suggest value on these teams getting points, particularly in key matchups that could impact playoff positioning. The public heavily favors the Chiefs, while sharp money appears to be supporting all three underdogs.

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