The NBA Draft Lottery rewards teams that missed the playoffs with a chance at top draft picks, using a weighted probability system. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of how the odds work:

Top Three Worst Records (14% Each)

• Three teams with worst records each have equal 14% chance at #1 pick
• 12-14% chance at picks 2-4
• Worst team can't fall below 5th pick
• Second-worst can't fall below 6th
• Third-worst can't fall below 7th

Middle Lottery Teams

• Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers (tied 4th-5th) have identical odds for picks 1-4
• Minnesota and Toronto (6th-7th) follow with decreasing odds
• Toronto has highest probability of landing 8th pick

Play-In Tournament Losers

• Indiana Pacers: 93% chance at 13th pick
• Golden State Warriors: 98% chance at 14th pick
• San Antonio Spurs: 85% chance at 12th pick
• Charlotte Hornets: 77.6% chance at 11th pick

The current system, revised to discourage tanking, proved successful when the Pelicans won the Zion Williamson sweepstakes despite not having the worst record. This encourages teams to remain competitive while still providing hope for struggling franchises.

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