Mississippi State vs Missouri SEC Tournament Picks & Predictions: Can Bulldogs Continue Hot Offensive Run?
The 10-seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-11) face the 7-seed Missouri Tigers (21-10) in the SEC Tournament Second Round, with Missouri favored by 3.5 points. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
Coach and player talking during game
The Bulldogs enter with strong momentum after a 91-62 win over LSU, where Josh Hubbard scored 26 points on 6-of-12 three-point shooting. Mississippi State's offense has been exceptional, scoring 81+ points in four straight games.
Key factors favoring Mississippi State:
- Ranks 21st in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency
- Second-fastest pace in SEC
- 54.8% success rate on two-point shots
- 4th in SEC in offensive rebounding rate (32.2%)
Missouri's recent defensive struggles are concerning, allowing 84+ points in eight of their last 12 games and averaging 90.8 points against in their last six contests. While Missouri ranks 5th in offensive efficiency, their 12th-ranked SEC perimeter defense could be problematic against Mississippi State's strong inside scoring.
The teams' previous meeting saw Missouri win 88-61, but Mississippi State's current offensive form and Missouri's defensive decline suggest a closer game this time.
Prediction: Mississippi State +3.5 (-110)
- Strong offensive momentum
- Matchup advantages inside
- Better defensive efficiency (48th adjusted)
- Fresh starters after managed minutes vs LSU
The over/under is set at 156.5 points (-110), with Mississippi State at +140 moneyline and Missouri at -170. Given recent trends and matchup advantages, the Bulldogs have strong potential to not only cover but potentially win outright.