Las Vegas locals casino operators face mixed prospects in 2025, following varied performance in 2024. The segment is expected to show modest growth, with key players adapting to new market dynamics.

Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli highlights the significant impact of Red Rock Resorts' Durango Casino & Resort, which opened in December 2023. The property has successfully attracted business from competitors while prompting increased promotional activity among independent casinos.

Key Market Insights:

• Durango's projected 2024 annual net revenue: $340 million
• Estimated net casino revenue: $225 million
• Expected gross gaming revenue: $260 million

2024 Performance Overview:

• Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD): Positive trading performance
• Golden Entertainment (NASDAQ: GDEN): Declined
• Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ: RRR): Declined

Market operators experienced lower EBITDAR and same-store sales in 2024, coupled with increased operating costs. Durango's impact appears limited to specific areas, showing minimal effect on Boulder Strip and North Las Vegas properties.

Workforce Trends Analysis:

• 2014-2019: 3% CAGR in revenue, matching employment growth
• Post-2019: 5.1% revenue CAGR vs. 0.9% job growth
• Current gaming revenue per workforce member: Up 4.2% over 12 months

Looking ahead, both Boyd and Red Rock could outperform in 2025, contingent on favorable gaming revenue growth. However, Santarelli cautions that without substantial market growth, consensus forecasts might prove optimistic. The slowing workforce growth relative to gaming revenue trajectory presents a potential concern for 2025 outlook.

Related Articles

Previous Articles