The #3 Texas Longhorns (9-1, 5-1 SEC) host the Kentucky Wildcats (4-6, 1-6 SEC) at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Despite Texas's elite defense allowing just 11.9 points per game (4th in FBS), Kentucky could keep this game closer than expected. The Wildcats have proven competitive against top teams, losing by one point to Georgia and upsetting Ole Miss on the road.

Texas's recent offensive struggles are noteworthy, with QB Quinn Ewers and the offense scoring 27 points or less in three of their last four games. The Longhorns also face a potential trap game situation with their Texas A&M rivalry matchup looming.

Kentucky's defense gets several key players back from injury, including WR Barion Brown, DL Deone Walker, and LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson. Their physical, ball-control style could keep the game tight.

Betting Analysis:

• Spread: Texas -18.5 (opened at -21.5)
• Moneyline: Texas -1100, Kentucky +700
• Total: 47.0 points
• Kentucky is 3-0 ATS as a 15.5+ point underdog this season
• Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last five games as 17+ point favorites

Key Injuries: Texas:

• WR DeAndre Moore Jr. (questionable - leg)
• LB Morice Blackwell (probable)
• EDGE Colton Vasek (probable)

Kentucky:

• OLB J.J. Weaver (probable - ankle)
• DL Kahlil Saunders (questionable)
• OL Courtland Ford (questionable)

Prediction: Texas wins but Kentucky covers +18.5, with a projected final score of 33-17. The Wildcats' physical style and Texas's offensive inconsistency point to a closer game than the spread suggests.

Top Player Props:

• Brock Vandagriff Over 0.5 Passing TDs (-130)
• Same Game Parlay (+1000): Kentucky +18.5, Under 47, Ray Davis anytime TD

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