UFC 274: Expert Betting Analysis - Oliveira vs. Gaethje Title Fight

UFC 274: Expert Betting Analysis - Oliveira vs. Gaethje Title Fight

By Michael Davidson

March 5, 2025 at 05:10 PM

UFC 274 features a lightweight title clash between champion Charles Oliveira (-170) and challenger Justin Gaethje (+140). The co-main event sees Rose Namajunas defend her title against Carla Esparza.

Charles Oliveira (32-8-0):

  • Current 10-fight win streak
  • UFC record holder: Most submissions (15) and finishes (18)
  • Evolved from struggling featherweight to dominant lightweight
  • Fight breakdown: 9 KO/TKO, 20 submissions, 3 decisions

Justin Gaethje (23-3-0):

  • Former Division I All-American wrestler
  • Lost previous title shot to Khabib Nurmagomedov
  • Known for heavy-handed striking power
  • Fight breakdown: 19 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions

Fight Analysis:

  • Gaethje has knockout power to end fight early
  • Oliveira starts slow but has more paths to victory
  • Oliveira can secure submissions from standing positions
  • Gaethje possesses strong takedown defense

Prediction: Expect either an early Gaethje knockout or Oliveira securing a late-round rear-naked choke victory. Oliveira's diverse skillset gives him a slight edge despite Gaethje's power advantage.

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