Super Bowl LVI Points Total: Why Under 48.5 Looks Like the Smarter Bet

Super Bowl LVI Points Total: Why Under 48.5 Looks Like the Smarter Bet

By Michael Davidson

February 17, 2025 at 05:23 PM

The Super Bowl LVI total points over/under is set at 48.5, with trends and matchup analysis suggesting the under as the smarter bet. Here's why:

Key Defensive Factors:

  • Both defenses are playing exceptionally well this postseason
  • Bengals allowing 19.7 points per game in playoffs
  • Rams giving up just 18.3 points per game
  • Elite defensive players on both sides (Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Jalen Ramsey, Trey Hendrickson)

Offensive Considerations:

  • Both teams are typically slow starters in postseason games
  • First playoff run for both QBs (Burrow and Stafford) could impact early performance
  • Strong running games (Mixon and Akers) will keep the clock moving
  • Field goals likely to be common scoring plays

Special Teams Impact:

  • Bengals' McPherson perfect on playoff field goals (12/12)
  • Veteran kicker Matt Gay reliable for Rams
  • Rams' punter Johnny Hekker can pin opponents deep

The under appears to be the better bet given the strong defensive play, likelihood of field goals over touchdowns, and clock management through the running game. The 48.5-point total requires over 12 points per quarter, which seems ambitious given the playoff trends and defensive strengths of both teams.

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