Star Entertainment Group faces severe liquidity challenges as its cash reserves dwindle to AUD 79 million, down from AUD 107 million at the end of Q3 2024. Morningstar analyst Angus Hewitt warns the company may struggle to reach its February 28, 2025 interim results without immediate financial intervention.

The company faces multiple challenges:

• Difficulty accessing its second AUD 100 million debt facility tranche
• Need for additional subordinated capital of at least AUD 150 million
• Government control of key venues due to anti-money laundering investigations
• Recent exit of major stakeholder JPMorgan Chase
• Weak macroeconomic conditions affecting operations

Potential solutions include:

• Asset sales
• Finding a strategic buyer
• Equity raising at AUD 0.10 per share (30% discount to current trading)

However, analysts remain skeptical about immediate solutions, with Morningstar assigning an "extreme uncertainty" rating and a price target of AUD 0.20. The firm estimates a 50% chance of Star entering administration, with concerns about:

• Limited debt issuance options
• Weak carded play performance
• Challenging Australian economic conditions
• Dilutive effects of potential equity raising

The situation appears particularly dire for Star's flagship venues - The Star Sydney, The Star Brisbane, and the Star Gold Coast - all currently under government management due to regulatory concerns.

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