NFL Week 11 features crucial matchups impacting playoff races, with standout games including Commanders vs Eagles and Chiefs vs Bills. Here are three value picks against the spread for Week 11.

Patriots +5.5 (-110) vs Rams

• Patriots showing improvement with two wins in last three weeks
• Rookie QB Drake Maye displaying progress
• Rams' defense ranks third-last in coverage
• Patriots' defense performing better than statistics suggest
• Rams on short week after Monday night loss

Chiefs -1.5 (+118) at Bills

• Mahomes boasts 11-3 record as underdog
• Chiefs remain undefeated (9-0) despite offensive struggles
• Bills have regressed from 2023 (6th in DVOA vs 3rd last year)
• Both teams dealing with receiver injuries
• Chiefs won last matchup in Buffalo (27-24 in playoffs)

Bengals -2.5 (+120) vs Chargers

• Bengals offense averaging 28.9 PPG over last nine weeks
• Cincinnati better on road (3-2) than home (1-4)
• Chargers struggling at home (4-8 in last 12 games)
• LA averaging just 20.7 PPG (22nd in NFL)
• 98% of early money favoring Bengals ATS

These picks consider recent performance trends, key injuries, and situational advantages. The Bengals-Chargers line may shift toward Cincinnati as game day approaches.

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