Michigan vs Wisconsin: Game Preview and Predictions for 2025 Big Ten Tournament Championship
The Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5) face the Michigan Wolverines in the 2025 Big Ten Tournament final on Sunday at 3:30 pm ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Wisconsin player dribbling basketball in red
Key Betting Analysis:
- Wisconsin ML (-166) is the recommended play
- KenPom projects Wisconsin to win 78-74
- Torvik projects Wisconsin to win 77-74
- Wisconsin is 6-0 in neutral-site games (5-1 ATS)
- Michigan is 4-2 SU in neutral-site games
Matchup Advantages:
- Wisconsin's backcourt duo of John Tonje (19.5 PPG) and John Blackwell (15.4 PPG) gives them an edge
- Wisconsin can match Michigan's size with Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter
- Badgers rank 46th in defensive rebounding percentage (73.1%)
- Wisconsin is 39th in two-point field goal defense (47.0%)
Top Player Props:
- John Tonje OVER 21.5 points (-115)
- Steven Crowl OVER 5.5 rebounds (-105)
Tonje has been dominant in the tournament, scoring 18 vs Northwestern, 26 vs UCLA, and 32 vs Michigan State. Crowl should exceed 5.5 rebounds if he avoids foul trouble, having grabbed 7+ boards in two of his last three games.
Public Betting Trends:
- 81% of ML handle on Wisconsin
- 75% of ATS wagers on Wisconsin
- 68% of money on OVER 148.5
- 68% of total tickets on OVER
Michigan's frontcourt of Vladislav Goldin (16.9 PPG) and Danny Wolf (13.3 PPG) will challenge Wisconsin, but the Badgers' superior guard play should lead them to their first Big Ten Tournament title since 2015.