Las Vegas Strip casino revenues are expected to see slower growth in 2025, with analysts particularly concerned about non-gaming revenue decline. Deutsche Bank projects a 0.1% drop in gross gaming revenue (GGR) and a more substantial 2.4% decline in net revenue.

The first quarter comparison will be especially challenging due to the 2024 Super Bowl impact. Major operators MGM Resorts and Caesars Entertainment have already seen their stocks decline over 20% year-to-date, partially reflecting these concerns.

Key 2025 projections:

• Slots: Modest contraction expected despite healthy handle rates
• Table Games: Stable non-baccarat hold rates with slight decline
• Baccarat: Low double-digit revenue decline anticipated
• RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room): Expected to decrease by low to mid-single digits

Recent property changes, including closures of the Mirage and Tropicana, plus planned MGM Grand renovations, are not expected to significantly impact overall Strip supply and demand dynamics.

The forecast considers several factors:

• Tough year-over-year comparisons, especially post-Super Bowl
• Declining non-gaming revenue
• Stabilizing table game performance
• Continued strength in slot handle rates
• Room revenue compression

Despite these challenges, Las Vegas maintains a robust event calendar, though operators will need to navigate carefully through the expected slowdown in both gaming and non-gaming revenue streams.

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