KenPom Reveals Top March Madness 2025 Betting Picks
Based on KenPom's analytics, here are the most valuable March Madness betting picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament first round:
Three Clippers players gesture leftward
Top Value Pick: Oklahoma ML (+190) vs UConn
- KenPom projects: 1-point UConn win (48% win probability for Oklahoma)
- Current odds imply only 34.48% win probability for Oklahoma
- Despite UConn's 12-game tournament win streak, talent gap is smaller this year
- UConn's championship odds at +8000 reflect reduced dominance
Ole Miss (+102) vs North Carolina
- KenPom projects: 77-76 Ole Miss victory
- Gives Rebels 54% win probability
- Current odds imply 49.5% win probability
- Value remains despite UNC's impressive First Four win
Best Total Plays (KenPom vs Current Odds):
- UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech
- Current total: 142.5
- KenPom projects: 147 (81-66 TTU)
- Difference: +4.5 points
Other Notable Total Discrepancies:
- New Mexico vs Marquette: 153.5 (KP: 150)
- Drake vs Missouri: 132.5 (KP: 136)
- Arkansas vs Kansas: 145.5 (KP: 142)
All odds from DraftKings as of 11:51 am ET, March 19, 2025.
These picks represent the largest discrepancies between KenPom's analytical projections and current market odds, potentially offering betting value for the first round of March Madness.
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