Flutter Entertainment reduced its 2024 revenue outlook to $5.78 billion from the previous $6.05-6.25 billion forecast, primarily due to unfavorable NFL betting outcomes. The company expects EBITDA to be $205 million lower than the initial $505 million midpoint projection.

Fourth-quarter projections show expected EBITDA of $161 million on sales of $1.59 billion. The main factor behind these adjustments is the unprecedented success of NFL favorites, which won 71.8% of games through December 31, 2024 - the highest rate in nearly 20 years.

Despite these short-term challenges, Flutter maintains an active share buyback program targeting at least $350 million by the end of the current quarter. The company emphasizes these results are "transitory" and don't affect their long-term outlook, which projects the total regulated global gross gaming revenue reaching $368 billion by 2030, representing an 8% CAGR.

Flutter's diversified international presence, particularly in Australia and Europe, helps offset US-related challenges. The company reports strong performance in UK/Ireland markets, with 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA expected to be approximately 1% and 2% higher than previous guidance, respectively.

For context, the NFL is the most wagered-on league in the US, and recreational bettors typically favor betting on favorites rather than underdogs. Through week 17, NFL favorites covered the spread at nearly 54% - the highest since 2017 and seventh-highest in the Super Bowl era.

These results could impact other sports betting operators, though after-hours trading showed mixed reactions, with DraftKings down 1% while ESPN Bet parent Penn Entertainment and Rush Street Interactive traded higher.

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