The Denver Nuggets' performance against the spread (ATS) in the 2024-2025 NBA season reveals key insights for bettors. With a 39-22 win-loss record and 31-28-1 ATS record (52.5% cover rate), the Nuggets demonstrate strong overall performance but mixed betting value.

Home vs. Away Splits:

• Home: 17-11 ATS (60.7% cover rate)
• Away: 14-16-1 ATS (46.7% cover rate)

Key Player Impact:

• Nikola Jokić: Team shows significantly better ATS performance when he plays
• Jamal Murray: His presence correlates with improved offensive efficiency and spread coverage

Notable Betting Trends:

• Better ATS coverage when favored by less than 5 points
• 40% cover rate in back-to-back games
• Strong tendency for games to go over the total points, especially against high-scoring teams

Betting Strategy Tips:

1. Favor home games over away games for ATS bets
2. Monitor injury reports, especially for Jokić and Murray
3. Consider the over in matchups against offensive-minded teams
4. Exercise caution on back-to-back games
5. Look for value when spreads are under 5 points

The Nuggets' consistent winning record doesn't always translate to ATS success, making selective betting based on these factors crucial for long-term profitability.

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